Trump-Xi meeting doesn't fix China's supply chain dominance

Both leaders wish to dial back conflict, but the fundamental challenges and most trade barriers remain intact.

Photo by Karola G via Pexels

U.S. president Donald Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping met for one hour and forty minutes on October 30 on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum to discuss a variety of issues facing the two nations, including trade, energy and global security.

While the Trump-Xi meeting resulted in some quick wins on top-of-mind issues for the U.S. and Chinese economies – a 10 percent drop in U.S. tariffs on China, soybean purchases, loosening access to rare earth elements, ship access – much remains unchanged between the two countries. U.S. tariffs on China remain over 15 times higher than they were before the trade war started in 2018.  Both countries are strengthening export restrictions on one another, even if those restrictions are now delayed. 

China makes clear in readouts about this week’s summit that it's focused on the health of its own economy. Any concessions it gives will not put its own economic growth at risk. Similarly, the U.S. will do what it takes to address supply chain vulnerabilities. And finally, this week’s agreement underscores an important lesson for Xi: when he moves to dramatically restrict U.S. access to goods (rare earths) or sales (soybeans), he can bring Trump to the table and make a deal. 

U.S. domestic politics are shaping the deal, as well. The White House fact sheet notes that most of the tariff postponements on the U.S. side expire November 10, 2026 — one week after U.S. midterm elections.

Trump-Xi meeting outcomes

Text of an agreement has not yet been released, so a White House fact sheet and media reports are the only available readouts thus far. According to the White House and U.S. and Chinese  media coverage, the U.S. and China agreed to the following: 

• Tariff Rates | The U.S. will decrease the fentanyl tariff by 10 percent and will not implement 100 percent tariffs on November 1 in exchange for China curbing fentanyl production.

• Critical Minerals | China will suspend its October 9 export controls rare earths exports for one year (potentially only for the U.S.) in exchange for the U.S. granting access to certain advanced computer chips. It has also committed to issue “general licenses” for exports of gallium, germanium, antimony, graphite, and rare earths. Its existing export license requirements from April and from 2022 on seven rare earths, graphite, germanium, and gallium remain in place. However, the White House says, “The general license means the de facto removal of controls China imposed in April 2025 and October 2022.” Data show rare earth exports to the U.S. remain below 2024 levels for 2025 year-to-date.

• Port Fees | Both sides agreed not to implement higher port fees on the other’s ships. The U.S. is also delaying its Section 301 investigation into Chinese shipbuilding practices for a year. 

• Unreliable Entities / Export Restrictions |The U.S. agreed to delay implementation of its “50 percent” rule by one year. This rule would mean that any subsidiary or affiliate of a company on the U.S. Entity List or Military End-User (MEU) list with over 50 percent ownership by a listed company would be subject to Entity List and MEU restrictions (i.e., would be blacklisted by the U.S. government). China agreed to remove its recent addition of 14 U.S. companies to its “unreliable entity” list.

• Agriculture | China agreed to buy American soybeans (12 million metric tons through January and 25 million tons/year for the next three years) and resume buying hardwood logs. China also agreed to suspend its retaliatory tariffs from March 2025 on U.S. agricultural products like chicken, wheat, corn, cotton, sorghum, soybeans, pork, beef, aquatic goods, fruits, vegetables, and dairy.

• Semiconductors | China agreed to resume Nexperia chip exports and is dropping investigations into U.S. semiconductor companies.

What the U.S. said about the meeting

President Trump spoke with the press, rating the meeting a “12” on a scale from 1-10. He depicted the fractious issue of China’s rare earths export ban as “settled” though the terms would need to be renegotiated on an annual basis. Secretary Bessent indicated similar optimism for trade measures affecting U.S. soybean farmers with a longer time frame. Overall, the public U.S. government assessment of the meeting was very positive. 

What China said about the meeting

The Chinese government issued a press release following the meeting emphasizing the need for continued collaboration and a strong relationship between the two countries and their leaders, stating “dialogue is better than confrontation.” President Xi’s reported remarks similarly noted “major countries” can and should “accomplish more great and concrete things for the good of our two countries and the whole world,” implying a desire to collaborate in mutually beneficial areas. Yet Chinese government sources provided no details about what was actually agreed, leading some to speculate that, in fact, nothing was truly agreed at the meeting. Nonetheless, Chinese media depicted the meeting as a success for President Xi.

What wasn’t discussed

Several of the most difficult issues facing U.S.-China relations were not discussed and/or no announcements were made regarding progress. These include: 

• Overcapacity | Chinese overcapacity in a variety of sectors presents a problem for the U.S. and Chinese economies. This issue was not discussed by the two leaders.

• TikTok | While U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that China agreed to the transfer of TikTok on the Asia trip, media statements from China only indicated a willingness to keep discussing solutions.

• Taiwan | President Trump implied there was no room for discussion prior to the meeting and media reports indicate Taiwan was not discussed at the meeting.

• Bigger Semiconductor Issues | President Trump’s comments imply a potential future loosening of market restrictions in face of pressure from China and Nvidia, but no announcement was made. He did note that Nvidia's most powerful Blackwell chips were not discussed.

Don't want to miss a post?

Sign up for our newsletter, The Ripple Effect, to catch all of our analysis right in your inbox.