Trump's trade deals in Asia: Implications for critical minerals

Cascade Advisory
Nov 3
7 min read

Trump's October Asia tour put critical minerals top of the agenda. Some of the deals could have a positive impact on U.S. supply chain independence.

A panoramic night view of Busan, the South Korean city that hosted world leaders at the 2025 APEC Summit. Photo by Thuan Nguyen via Pexels.

President Trump just completed a weeklong tour of Asia with stops in Malaysia, Japan, and Korea to attend the APEC Summit and meet with leaders from a variety of Asian countries. Trump signed trade deals on his Asia trip with countries including Cambodia, Japan, Malaysia, South Korea, Thailand, and Vietnam, in addition to announcing an easing of tensions with China (read our analysis here). Nearly all of these deals addressed critical minerals in one way or another, showing the urgency with which the Trump administration is addressing the lack of access to critical minerals in the U.S.

The United States’ focus on securing supply of critical minerals and processing capability became evident and includes a push in most of the agreements for first right of refusal for the U.S. of any critical minerals asset sales in the Asian countries. Also notable was the effort by the U.S. to align potential allies’ trade and investment policy with U.S. national security policy, including trade restrictions, investment screening, and export controls.

These agreements also highlighted the U.S. response to a demand by many companies to create a two-track global pricing system. Agreements with Japan, Malaysia, and Thailand include variations on the following: “Establishing high-standard marketplaces that reflect the real costs of responsible extraction, processing, and trade of critical minerals and rare earths, and pricing measures to support alternative projects and such high-standard markets.”

Cambodia trade agreement

Cambodia and the U.S. signed a full trade agreement that enters into effect once both parties have notified the other they have made the necessary internal changes to implement the agreement. This agreement removes many barriers to trade for U.S. companies wishing to access the Cambodian market and reduces some tariffs for Cambodian products entering the U.S., setting most at 19 percent.

Per the terms of the agreement, Cambodia will “allow and facilitate U.S. investment in its territory to explore, mine, extract, refine, process, transport, distribute, and export critical minerals” on terms similar to those granted to Cambodian companies. The agreement levies a zero percent tariff on U.S. imports of rare earth metals, scandium, yttrium, aluminum, chromium, manganese, nickel, niobium, tungsten, tin, cobalt, and zinc, among others.

The agreement also takes many measures to align Cambodian trade and investment policy with U.S. trade policy. For instance, Article 5.1.1 calls for Cambodia to match any import restriction imposed by the U.S. on a good or service, opening the door for harmonized U.S.-Cambodian restrictions on products from Foreign Entities of Concern (FEOC), e.g., from China. Cambodia also commits to taking measures against companies from third countries that send products to the U.S. that are priced below-market or otherwise exhibit unfair trade practices. The agreement requires Cambodia to share information, including confidential information, about third country investment in Cambodia upon request.

Japan investment agreement, critical minerals framework

Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi signed two agreements during their meeting October 27-28. They announced a sweeping investment agreement building on Japan’s commitment earlier this year to provide hundreds of billions of dollars in investment in the U.S. They also signed a critical minerals framework agreement, which went into effect October 28.

The investment agreement details how Japan intends to meet its commitment to invest $550 billion in the U.S. It lays out spending plans for up to $470 billion of the total, the majority of which ($332 billion) is dedicated to “critical energy infrastructure,” including an $80 billion nuclear power deal announced with Westinghouse. The investments include few commitments on critical minerals other than $2 billion for a copper smelting and refining facility, $3 billion for an ammonia and urea fertilizer facility, and $350 million for a lithium-iron-phosphate plant.

The critical minerals framework is the most robust of any announced on the trip, albeit legally nonbinding. It focuses on securing both upstream and downstream supply and facilitating transparency in supply chains. To do this, Japan and the U.S. will jointly identify and fund projects. Specifically, “the Participants intend to take measures to provide financial support to selected projects to generate end product for delivery to buyers,” including by mobilizing private capital.

Targeted areas of cooperation include:

Price: The U.S. puts forward language it uses to varying degrees in all of its Asia critical minerals deals: “Establishing high-standard marketplaces that reflect the real costs of responsible extraction, processing, and trade of critical minerals and rare earths, and pricing measures to support alternative projects and such high-standard markets.”
Investment restrictions: The U.S. and Japan agree to develop a mechanism to screen asset sales on national security grounds.
Scrap: Both countries commit to investing in recycling of scrap, including both critical minerals and rare earths.
Stockpiling: Both countries want to coordinate and collaborate on critical minerals stockpiling.

Cooperation will be bolstered by the establishment of a U.S.-Japan Critical Minerals Supply Security Rapid Response Group overseen by the U.S. Secretary of Energy and the Japanese Minister of Economy, Trade, and Industry. The two countries also commit to hosting a bilateral Mining, Minerals and Metals Investment Ministerial within 180 days of signing.

Malaysia trade agreement, critical minerals MOU

Malaysia and the U.S. signed a full trade agreement (the “agreement”) that enters into effect 60 days after both countries have made any necessary legal and/or regulatory adjustments. It opens Malaysia to U.S. producers, sets most U.S. tariffs for Malaysian goods and services at 19 percent, and substantially addresses bilateral critical minerals partnership. They also signed a brief separate memorandum of understanding on critical minerals cooperation (the “Malaysia MOU”).

The agreement outlines several commitments by Malaysia regarding critical minerals:

Malaysia commits to develop its critical minerals and rare earth sector together with U.S. companies “to ensure secure and diversified supply chains.”
Malaysia will provide more operational certainty for companies, including extending operating licenses, enhancing technical capabilities, and supporting company growth.
Malaysia agreed to encourage U.S. critical minerals investment in-country and refrain from banning or imposing quotas on exports to the U.S. of critical minerals or rare earth elements. However, the agreement does not appear to lift the export ban on rare earth ore, which Malaysia implemented in order to encourage downstream processing in-country.
The agreement also calls on Malaysia to take measures to promote recovery of critical minerals from waste streams, including from electronic waste and lithium-ion batteries.
Malaysia agrees to supply rare earth magnets on terms favorable to the U.S. Malaysia will also not impose restrictions on the sale of rare earth magnets to U.S. companies.

Similar to the Cambodian agreement, the agreement with Malaysia endeavors to align trade and investment policy with U.S. policy. Malaysia commits to match any import restriction imposed by the U.S. on a good or service, opening the door for harmonized restrictions on products from Foreign Entities of Concern (FEOC), e.g., from China. Malaysia further commits to combat transhipment and circumvention, as well as taking measures against companies from third countries that send products to the U.S. that are priced below-market or otherwise exhibit unfair trade practices.

On national security, Malaysia agrees to align with all multilateral export controls observed by the U.S. as well as all unilateral export controls only implemented by the U.S. Malaysia also agrees to “explore the establishment of a mechanism to review inbound investment for national security risks,” including in relation to critical minerals.

On top of the trade agreement, the Malaysia MOU highlights the importance of information sharing, regulatory capacity building, and where possible, giving preferential treatment to U.S. companies in any critical minerals sales in Malaysia.

The MOU also outlines what appears to be the new U.S. vision for critical minerals trading: “high standard marketplaces in which those who meet those high standards can trade preferentially and within a pricing framework including price floors or similar measures.”

South Korea trade agreement

October 29, the U.S. and South Korea reached a broad trade deal; however, full text has yet to be released. Based on available information from the White House fact sheet, the broad deal largely follows the framework announcement made in July. Reciprocal tariffs will drop from 25 percent to 15 percent. Seoul’s promised $350 billion investment in the U.S. will be split between a $150 billion investment in U.S.-based shipbuilding operations and $200 billion in a U.S. investment fund, similar to a sovereign wealth fund in theory (details forthcoming). South Korea will make payments of $20 billion per year into the fund and any profits will initially be split 50-50, although that percentage may be adjusted over time.

No specific details on critical minerals were forthcoming in the absence of final text. However, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and his Korean and Japanese counterparts reaffirmed their trilateral critical minerals agreement from September.

Thailand framework agreement, critical minerals MOU

The U.S. entered into a “framework” agreement with Thailand, a precursor to a complete trade agreement the countries have committed to negotiate “in the coming weeks”. Separately, the countries entered into a memorandum of understanding on critical minerals (the “Thailand MOU”) that went into effect upon signature.

The MOU calls for joint efforts to develop a critical minerals sector in Thailand, including technology transfer and capacity building, both in terms of workforce training and in terms of regulatory capacity, including permitting. It also includes providing early notice on “potential tenders and projects” to both parties and offering first right of refusal of the two signatories of any critical minerals “assets” being sold in Thailand.

As with Malaysia, the Thailand MOU also outlines what appears to be the new U.S. vision for critical minerals trading: “high standard marketplaces in which those who meet those high standards can trade preferentially and within a pricing framework including price floors or similar measures.”

Vietnam framework agreement

The U.S. and Vietnam agreed on a framework for a trade deal that they commit to finalizing “in the coming weeks.” Vietnam commits to providing preferential market access for “substantially all U.S. industrial and agricultural exports” to Vietnam. The U.S. will set its reciprocal tariffs at 20 percent, and will also identify products from Annex III to Executive Order 14346 that will receive a zero percent reciprocal tariff rate.

Although Vietnam has substantial critical minerals reserves and a growing metal production sector, no agreement on critical minerals was announced during this bilateral engagement.

What's next for the trade deals Trump made in Asia

We are still waiting for details on several of these deals. Most are also forward-looking, meaning they will require time, focus, and staffing to fully unlock value. It remains to be seen whether the current administration has the staff in place to advance these deals.