Midterms 2026: A Choice of Two Populisms
Democrats are likely to take control of the House of Representatives, while control of the Senate remains a tossup–but economic issues will dominate the agenda regardless of who takes control. Follow the elections in real time by visiting our election results tracker.
Cost Control & Corruption Driving the New Congress
The new Congress has a clear mandate to control consumer costs and address the affordability crisis. They also feel urgency to address potential negative impacts from economic development. Voters feel a loss of control of their neighborhoods–real or perceived– as they see data centers and other facilities showing up and don’t feel like there was local buy-in. Congress will need to balance two things: policies that grow the economy and protections for average Americans, who feel they are not benefitting from the robust U.S. economy.
At the same time, Congress must address real challenges posed by U.S. divergence from China, including supply chain vulnerability. Often, the correct choice for national security risks further increasing costs–but the alternative is unreliable access to key technologies.
Finally, Americans want Congress to address corruption. Democrats, who anticipate taking control of at least the House of Representatives, believe they can best fulfill this mandate by conducting oversight of the presidential administration. They will try to tie the affordability crisis to what they believe are corrupt actions by the President and his allies. This Democratic oversight will likely include scrutiny of recent equity deals and other funding agreements the administration has recently made with companies.
The new Congress and President Trump will share many similar goals. Yet Democrats will need to decide whether it’s good politics to compromise with Trump, while Republicans need to decide whether they can safely distance themselves. Trump must decide whether to focus on his long-term legacy as a president and statesman or whether to prioritize personal or family goals and retribution against perceived enemies. How Trump and Congress see the potential for compromise will shape the next two years.
At the state level, Democrats may make some gains but Republicans will remain deeply entrenched in state legislatures across the country. States can act more nimbly than the federal government and many are likely to continue restricting data center and other industrial construction regardless of which party holds power.
Businesses should be ready for increased scrutiny of investment announcements and their related community benefits. Those organizations receiving government grants, especially those with novel agreements like equity, should be ready for potential oversight investigations. While Congressional oversight authority has its limits, it can drive potentially uncomfortable press cycles. Even those not directly in the limelight but in similar sectors may receive attention.
At the same time, Congress will likely still have limited ability to challenge tariffs, export controls, “military operations” like in Iran, or other decisions made by the Administration that are meaningfully shaping investment decisions and driving costs.
Voting Against a Rigged System in the 2026 Midterms
We can see choices in this election as protests against a rigged system regardless of which candidates a voter selects. Americans of all political stripes are unhappy, seemingly at record levels. The economy and cost of living are the top issues for 85 and 84 percent of voters, respectively, according to an October 15 AP/NORC poll.
This is despite the fact that the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq have reached record highs, bolstered by the AI boom. Most Americans don’t see that growing wealth in their wallets. Concentration of wealth among the richest in America is growing, and the last time we saw such wide wealth gaps in the U.S. was during the Gilded Age, when robber barons ruled the economy.
Yet Americans have little faith that the government can fix the issues they face. A massive 89 percent of Americans believe corruption is endemic in government, a 20-year high, according to a September 2 Gallup poll.
If Democrats gain seats as expected on November 3, it’s not because Americans trust them to fix the economy or corruption. It’s because they trust Republicans less.
Woke is Out; Pragmatic is In
Campaign watchers will struggle in the 2026 midterms to find any remnants of the social progressivism Democrats embraced in the first half of the decade–despite primary wins by Democratic Socialists in some districts. As former progressive queen Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez said in August, “Woke 1 was crazy.” She is now rebranding herself as an economic populist instead, as are many of her fellow party members. Democrats have remained laser-focused on the economy, and Democratic leaders hope they can maintain this momentum in their caucus in the 120th Congress, rather than risk losing political support by wading back into the culture wars.
This pragmatism also informs how successful Democrats have been governing: they focus on customer service, even the unglamorous kind. They believe that showing results and responsiveness to their constituents is the way to build loyalty and trust. First-time Representative Sarah McBride of Delaware set herself–and achieved– the goal of winning the Congressional Management Foundation’s award for best constituent services in Congress. At least one senator has a business card they hand to constituents with their personal cell phone number on it. Baltimore Mayor Brandon Scott set a pothole-filling challenge and even personally responds to social media tags about newly-spotted potholes.
How the New Congress will Work with Trump
The new Congress will share many common goals with President Trump and the potential for compromise is real, should Democrats decide it is politically wise. They will both need to balance business-friendly policies that grow the economy and protections for average Americans, who feel that the benefits of the robust U.S. economy are out of reach. Trump must decide whether to focus on his long-term legacy as a president and statesman or whether to prioritize personal or family goals and retribution against perceived enemies. How Trump and Congress see the potential for compromise will shape the next two years.
Congress and Trump agree they must continue to address real challenges posed by U.S. divergence from China, including supply chain disruption. Often, the correct choice for national security risks further increasing costs to businesses and consumers–but the alternative is unreliable access to key technologies.
One major point of divergence will be Trump’s preference for taking executive action without Congressional approval, even when Congress believes it is legally required. His reference to Iran as a “military operation” is one example: Congress has the power to approve wars and has repeatedly signaled disapproval of U.S. conflict with Iran but has not had the votes to override the president. In the 120th Congress, it is possible Congress overrides the President on an issue and he does not comply, triggering a potential governance crisis.
Another major area of tension: Americans want Congress to address corruption. Democrats believe they can best fulfill this mandate by conducting oversight of the presidential administration. They will try to tie the affordability crisis to what they believe are corrupt actions by the President and his allies. Democratic oversight will likely include scrutiny of recent equity deals and other funding agreements the administration has recently made with companies. Democrats are also looking at procedural changes that could make it easier for Congress to subpoena witnesses. Trump is likely to resist and may become less willing to compromise with Congress due to this oversight.
Composition of Congress after the 2026 Midterms
Democrats look likely to take a comfortable majority in the House – although it won’t be a blowout – and the Senate remains a tossup.
Yet we already know Congress will look different due to the record numbers of Senators and Representatives retiring or seeking other office. When the next Congress convenes, at least 81 percent of the House and 42 percent of the Senate will have only ever served in a post-Trump era. In other words, they took office in 2017 or later, so they have only ever known a world shaped by President Trump.
Senate: Loss of Foreign Policy, Institutional Knowledge
Of the 35 Senate seats up for election, 10 are considered competitive by Cook Political Report. Minnesota and New Hampshire lean Democrat, South Carolina lean Republican, and seven are tossups: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas.
Even before elections, we know the Senate will suffer significant institutional loss with the departures of the 119th Congress. Long-term members with significant judicial and foreign policy expertise are departing or have departed, like China expert Steve Daines (R-MT) and lead Democrat on the judiciary committee Dick Durbin (D-IL). These departures pose a risk to businesses who depend on Congress to set nuanced business and foreign policy priorities.
In total, 17 Senators from 16 states are definitely leaving (or have left) Congress during the past two-year term: 15 Republicans and two Democrats. This does not count those who might lose their elections in November, but does include those like J.D. Vance (R-OH) and Marco Rubio (R-FL) who are serving in the current Administration, and recently deceased Lindsey Graham (R-SC).
The 17 departures also include 11 Senators not seeking reelection: Ten are retiring from public office while one, Tommy Tuberville (R-AL), is leaving the Senate and running for governor.
Senators Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), Marsha Blackburn (R-TN), and Michael Bennett (D-CO) also ran for governor while staying in the Senate. Bennett lost his gubernatorial primary and will stay in the Senate, while Klobuchar and Blackburn are both polling ahead in their general elections. If they leave, as governors they may have the chance to select their own successors.
House: New Generation of Leadership?
Democrats appear likely to win the House, a trend even typically optimistic House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has noted. Of the 50 House seats rated competitive by Cook Political Report, 39 are held by Republicans.
Democrats need 218 seats to secure a majority in the House, and most models predict Democrats could win 230-240 seats. This would be enough to make governing the House easier: Democrats would have enough members to secure a majority in most floor votes even if certain members vote against their leadership. By contrast, Republicans’ current razor-thin majority has led to stalled legislation and vote upsets.
Democratic leadership would be new to the majority. Generational leaders Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), Steny Hoyer (D-MD) and Jim Clyburn (D-SC) ceded their leadership spots to Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), Whip Katharine Clark (D-MA), and Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar (D-CA) in 2023. However, these party leaders have only governed in the minority to date.
Republican House leadership may be up for grabs as Republicans look to lose their majority. Speaker Mike Johnson already indicated he may retire from Congress if Republicans lose; meanwhile, longtime hopefuls like Steve Scalise (R-LA) and Jim Jordan (R-MO) are eyeing the position.
Like the Senate, the House is also set for a record year of turnover rivalling only 1992 and 2010 in recent history, when 24 percent and 23 percent of Congress left or lost their races, respectively. Over 17 percent of House members are leaving Congress even before elections even take place. This includes 32 who are retiring, 28 seeking other office, and 11 who lost their primary elections.
Significant Committee Leadership Changes
Committee leadership turnover will impact nearly all committees in Congress this year. Republican committee leaders are term limited, although the rules are slightly different in the House and the Senate. Democrats do not face term limits, instead prioritizing seniority; occasionally, rank-and-file Democrats will challenge committee leaders to take over their spots.
In the House, most changes will be on the Republican side. Seven House Republican committee leaders are term-limited this year: Natural Resources, Oversight, Transportation & Infrastructure, Judiciary, Veterans’ Affairs, Agriculture, and Armed Services. The Republican Budget Committee leader is retiring. At least some of the term-limited leaders will seek waivers to serve another term in the role, but those are rarely given and certainly not all seven will receive them. Among Democrats, members are challenging the current party leaders of the Financial Services and Education Committees. Angie Craig, top Democrat on the Agriculture Committee, is not running for reelection to her suburban Minneapolis seat. Succession remains unclear for most committee slots, even though seniority is typically the top consideration, given waiver requests and departures.
The Senate’s new committee leadership will be shaped by several senior departures that will result in a dizzying bout of musical chairs based on Senate seniority and committee prestige. Republican committee chairs Bill Cassidy (R-LA), Mitch McConnell (R-KY), and Joni Ernst (R-IA) are leaving Congress while Sen. Chuck Grassley is term-limited in his role as Judiciary chair. This means, Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT) is in line to lead Judiciary for Republicans while Sen. Dave McCormick (R-PA) could take Lee’s spot on Energy & Natural Resources. Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) is slated to lead Health, Education, Labor and Pensions–unless Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) loses her seat, in which case Murkowski would lead Appropriations.
Among Senate Democrats, Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) is leaving and Chris Coons is next up to chair Foreign Relations. Retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI) leads Homeland Security Democrats and that role could now be filled by Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-NH). Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL) is retiring and Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI) is likely to lead Judiciary for Democrats. In that case, he would surrender his role on Environment & Public Works and Sen. Ed Markey (D-MA) could succeed him.
Committee leaders are selected after House- and Senate-wide leadership. Rank-and-file committee assignments are then assigned by party leadership according to the numbers of slots given to each party based on election results. Many members of Congress switch committees relatively often, especially early in their tenure when they have less input into their committee assignments.
Midterm Elections: Nuts and Bolts
Midterm elections follow certain trends, and this election is no different from its predecessors in many ways. A total of 435 members of the House of Representatives are up for election, as well as the six non-voting delegates representing U.S. territories. Thirty-five Senate seats are also up for election: two special election seats and 33 regular election seats. The Senate elects one-third of its 100 members every two years.
Midterm elections typically favor the opposite party to the President's – in this case, Democrats. This trend is even more explicit this year: Since Republicans hold the White House and both chambers of Congress, it’s hard for them to blame Democrats for challenges the country is facing.
Elections are Becoming Less Competitive
Decades of more and more accurate gerrymandering, the drawing of districts to favor one party over the other, have made elections less competitive over time. The Cook Political Report identifies just 50 House races and 10 Senate races as competitive (toss-up, lean Democrat/ Republican), near an all time-low, according to analysis by journalist G. Elliott Morris.
Polling is Inexact
Polling is directionally helpful but inexact. The art has become even more challenging since Americans moved away from landlines and then stopped answering phones altogether. The 2026 primary elections showed some notable misses, with polls in Michigan and Wisconsin off by 10-25 percentage points.
The best polls to watch are external polls conducted by reputable organizations that have experience polling specifically in the relevant state. Internal polls paid for by candidates are less useful since they typically only released to the public if they are positive for the candidate. A number to watch in any poll is the margin of error, which indicates how much the poll sample may differ from the true value of the entire population. If a poll shows a race at 46-40 with a margin of error of +/- three percent, the candidate polling 46 is likely actually slightly ahead. If the same race shows a margin of error of +/- 10 percent, that poll shows a statistical tie.
Stakes at the State Level
States are often called the laboratories of democracy, and they have the agility and speed to make policy when the federal government won’t – or can’t. States are especially likely to have one-party rule. While a nationwide Democratic wave likely won’t break the Republican dominance of state legislatures, Democratic gains could break up one-party rule in some states and possibly create new Democratic trifectas in others.
Since around 2010, Republicans have consolidated power in state houses and governors’ mansions. A Democratic wave in 2026 could loosen that grip slightly, impacting specific states but not changing the general shape of state government. States are deeply divided: 39 states have trifectas where one party holds the governorship and majorities in both legislatures. Republicans hold 23 trifectas and Democrats hold 16. Just 11 states have divided rule.
One way to look at it: Ballotpedia rates the vulnerability of trifectas each election year. In 2026, it sees two Democratic trifectas highly exposed to breaking up (Maine and Oregon) and two somewhat exposed (New Mexico and Washington). On the Republican side, it rates Texas as highly exposed, Georgia as moderately exposed, and three states as somewhat exposed (Iowa, Montana, and New Hampshire).
Meanwhile, new trifectas could form. Kentucky and North Carolina could have blue trifectas, a big change. Kansas and Alaska could see red trifectas. And several states could see a trifecta of either party: Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Vermont, and Wisconsin.
There are 39 governor’s races taking place, and 13 of those are competitive – eight Republican and five Democratic. Democrats have pickup opportunities in five states, according to Cook Political Report: Alaska (Lean D), Iowa (Lean D), Ohio (Lean D), Georgia (Tossup), Nevada (Tossup).
Republicans currently control both chambers in 27 states and Democrats in 18 states. This means that only five states have split legislatures or other unique setups, like Nebraska’s single nonpartisan legislative chamber. State legislative races will be held in 46 states in 88 of the country’s 99 chambers. These races represent 83% of state legislative seats, according to NCSL.
There are 15 competitive legislatures out of the 88 races, of which nine are currently held by Republicans, three by Democrats, and three that are tied or coalitions, according to Louis Jacobson for Sabato’s Crystal Ball. These are:
Leans R:
Currently R held: New Hampshire Senate, Georgia House
Tossup:
Currently R held: Arizona Senate and House, Michigan House, Pennsylvania Senate, Wisconsin Assembly
Currently D held: Michigan Senate, Minnesota Senate
Other (tie): Minnesota House
Leans D:
Currently R held: New Hampshire House, Wisconsin Senate
Currently D held: Maine House
Leans Bipartisan: Alaska Senate and House (both are coalition-governed)
Follow the elections in real time by visiting our election results tracker.
Comments